Five Year Forecasts

Bucyrus City Schools 5 Year Forecast

Five Year Forecast Made Simple

In October and May of each fiscal year, the Bucyrus City SchoolDistrict submits a five year forecast to the Board of Education forapproval. Once approved by the Board, the forecast is sent on to theOhio Department of Education to meet the requirements set forth by theOhio Revised Code.

The financial forecast is designed to provide a general understandingof how revenues and expenditures are expected to influence the Districtover the next five years. Revenue and expenditure projections arereviewed in relation to their effect on funding capital projects,reserve levels and Operating Fund balances. The District updates itsrevenue model on an annual basis according to the most recent revenueinformation known at the time the forecast is created, in order to makethese projections. A forecast is somewhat like a snapshot of theinformation known at the time the forecast is created. As time goes on,information regarding revenues, expenses and fund balances changes asthe actual situation of the district changes.

The further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely theprojections will not match the actual experience of the district. Someof the variables which are constantly changing address State revenue,County taxes, economic growth in the area, Union agreements institutingsalary increases and the costs associated with health care and otherfringe benefits.

The current five year forecast identifies the last three years ofhistorical figures and projects final figures for this fiscal year aswell as four additional years of activity. All projected revenues andexpenses are assembled according to revenue stream and expense area.

The Board of Education will use the forecast as a management tool tomake district financial decisions based on the best information knowntoday. The Five Year Forecast, while not being the only tool to be usedin district management of finances, provides a glimpse into thefinancial future based on a specific set of assumptions and provides theBoard a financial compass when considering operational and supplementalexpenses of the district.

While development of the forecast can be as much of an art as it is ascience, the Treasurer of the Districts works with a specific set ofassumptions when preparing the forecast. The Treasurer will submit theforecast to the Board and the Ohio Department of Education, but theBoard of Education is ultimately responsible for the development of theforecast. The input of the Board by providing financial priorities isessential in the process.

If you would like to know more about the Five Year Forecast and howto read each line in the forecast contrasted by the assumptions, visitthe Ohio Department of Education Website for additional information.